2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Estimation of indirect economic damages caused by the East Japan Great Earthquake introducing the Ghosh Type I-O model
| Project/Area Number |
24360210
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
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| Research Institution | Tohoku Institute of Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAGAWA Shigemi 九州大学, 経済学研究科, 准教授 (20353534)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
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| Keywords | 東日本大震災 / 間接経済被害の推計 / 産業連関分析 / 前方連関効果 / Goshモデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The Government of Japan estimated the damages of the East Japan Great Earthquake as 16.9 trillion yen. The estimated amount, however, takes account of only the cost of reconstruction of physical damages. The indirect economic damages, such as decrease in production and/or labor compensation, are completely ignored in the estimation. This paper estimates the indirect economic damages of both backward linkage and forward linkage caused by decrease in consumer demand and damages in production facilities. The W. Isard type of inter-regional input-output analysis is employed for this purpose. Major findings are as follows: 1) The indirect economic damages were estimated as 6.9 trillion yen and 40% of the direct impact. 2) The forward linkage economic damage of 3.5 trillion yen is 47% larger than those of backward linkage damage caused by the destruction of industries.
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| Free Research Field |
土木計画学
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