Macroeconomic effects of public investment in the aftermath of a large natural disaster

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24530293
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: SHIOJI Etsuro 一橋大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (50301180)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 経済政策 / 財政政策 / 時系列分析 / 予想形成 / 株式市場 / ニュース分析 / 災害 / マクロ経済学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project has aimed to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of public investment in Japan. This is important because the nation has historically spent relatively large amounts of its resources on building infrastructure. A unique feature of this research is its focus on the policy effects in the aftermath of a large event, such as a massive destruction of public capital by an earthquake. Most notable achievements are the following three. (1) I have built a new theoretical model to show that, under certain conditions, the policy impact tends to be strengthened after a large natural disaster. (2) I have developed a new econometric approach and shown that, indeed, the policy effects have become stronger in recent years in Japan. (3) People's expectation about the future course of policy is likely to change after a large event, and it is important to take this into account when analyzing data. I have developed a novel methodology which allows me to do that.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学