Measuring the Time-Varying Efficiency and Market Linkages in Modern Japanese Rice Markets

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24530364
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public finance/Monetary economics
• Research Institution: Wakayama University
• Principal Investigator: NODA Akihiko 和歌山大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (80610112)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): IOKU Shigehiko 慶應義塾大学, 文学部, 教授 (60184371) ; MAEDA Kiyotaka 西南学院大学, 経済学部, 講師 (90708398)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): ITO Mikio 慶應義塾大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70184695)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 計量ファイナンス / 日本経済史 / 市場効率性 / 市場統合 / 東京米穀商品取引所 / 大阪堂島米穀取引所 / 外米代用受渡 / 朝鮮米

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The objective of this study is to examine the efficient market hypothesis for the rice futures market in prewar Japan. To attain the objective, we measured the relative market efficiency varying over time and attempted to clarify what varied the efficiency. In particular, we constructed long-run data of the rice market in the period and showed that the efficiency actually varied over time using a time-varying econometric model newly developed. Furthermore, examining the results together with primary historical materials, we finally demonstrated that the government-led import of rice to fill domestic demand reduced the efficiency of domestic rice market in prewar Japan and that the rice futures market failed to provide a proper index of physical rice price.

Free Research Field

計量ファイナンス