Development of new flood forecasting system using ensemble precipitation forecasts

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24560632
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Public Works Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: USHIYAMA Tomoki 独立行政法人土木研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (50466257)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): SAYAMA Takahiro 土木研究所, 水災害・リスクマネジメント国際センター (70402930)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 洪水予測 / 数値天気予報 / アンサンブル予報 / データ同化 / 水文流出モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The numerical weather prediction (NWP) has been steadily improved its accuracy. Instead, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by NWP are not utilized in flood forecasting yet. We developed a new flood forecasting system utilizing regional ensemble prediction system. We applied this system to two typhoon cases and a Baiu frontal torrential rainfall case which caused flood damages in recent years. The system predicted rainfall and discharge better than conventional methods without ensemble prediction system. This implies it has a potential to realize flood forecasting by NWP. However, the forecast accuracy is highly dependent on applied events. Although, one typhoon case showed acceptable forecast accuracy, the flood forecasting for a Baiu frontal case was low performance. It needs persistent evaluation for the goal of operational application.

Free Research Field

土木工学、水文学