• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to project page

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Development of new flood forecasting system using ensemble precipitation forecasts

Research Project

  • PDF
Project/Area Number 24560632
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Hydraulic engineering
Research InstitutionPublic Works Research Institute

Principal Investigator

USHIYAMA Tomoki  独立行政法人土木研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (50466257)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) SAYAMA Takahiro  土木研究所, 水災害・リスクマネジメント国際センター (70402930)
Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
Keywords洪水予測 / 数値天気予報 / アンサンブル予報 / データ同化 / 水文流出モデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

The numerical weather prediction (NWP) has been steadily improved its accuracy. Instead, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by NWP are not utilized in flood forecasting yet. We developed a new flood forecasting system utilizing regional ensemble prediction system. We applied this system to two typhoon cases and a Baiu frontal torrential rainfall case which caused flood damages in recent years. The system predicted rainfall and discharge better than conventional methods without ensemble prediction system. This implies it has a potential to realize flood forecasting by NWP. However, the forecast accuracy is highly dependent on applied events. Although, one typhoon case showed acceptable forecast accuracy, the flood forecasting for a Baiu frontal case was low performance. It needs persistent evaluation for the goal of operational application.

Free Research Field

土木工学、水文学

URL: 

Published: 2016-06-03  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi