Development of a numerical model for utility demand prediction considering stochastic nature of occupants behavior and scenario analysis

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24560716
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Architectural environment/equipment
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: HAGISHIMA Aya 九州大学, 総合理工学研究科(研究院), 准教授 (60294980)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): TANIMOTO Jun (60227238) ; IKEGAYA Naoki (70628213)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 空調負荷 / エネルギー需要予測 / 省エネルギー

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Accurate demand prediction of electricity, space cooling/heating and hot water is critical for dissimilating high-performance cogeneration systems in the housing sector. This research aims to contribute to this social requirement by improving a numerical modelling scheme, TUD-PS (Total Utility Demand Prediction System). Through this research projects, we have revised TUD-PS to improve its accuracy and versatility. The main activity can be summarized as follows. 1) Improvement of the state transition probability functions for occupants’ behavior of A/C operation and window-open/close, 2) dynamic modelling of COP of A/C, 3) structuring main source code. Furthermore, we conducted a systematic numerical experiment by using the revised TUD-PS to quantify the effects of various factors of both eco-friendly behaviors and building specifications on thermal load.

Free Research Field

建築環境