2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Evaluation of Supply Risks for Scarce Metals and Economic Analysis on Expansion of Photovoltaic Installation
| Project/Area Number |
24561001
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Earth system and resources enginnering
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| Research Institution | Akita University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
BESSHO Masahiko 秋田大学, 国際資源学部, 准教授 (40398425)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
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| Keywords | 太陽光発電 / 供給リスク / リスク指標 / リアルオプション分析 / 銀 / 高純度シリカ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
While photovoltaic (PV) power generation will be rapidly installed in the world, metal supply as raw materials of PV may not be sustainable in the future, because lots of scarce metals are used in PV cells. This study aims to evaluate; 1) Risk analysis for Silver supply by expansion of PV installation, 2) Economic analysis of PV installation considering uncertainties, 3) Efficient use of unused resource for silicon raw material.
We suggest six indicators to measure resource supply risk quantitatively, which show silver supply risk become higher for this decades. In PV installation in Japan, we analyze project valuation using real option method. Result of this model suggests that optimal investment timing in PV installation needs two times higher fossil fuel price.
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| Free Research Field |
資源経済学
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