2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Learning Probabilistic Simulation Models for Rare Event/Condition Occurrence

Research Project

Project/Area Number	24650069
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	Intelligent informatics
Research Institution	Osaka University
Principal Investigator	WASHIO Takashi 大阪大学, 産業科学研究所, 教授 (00192815)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha)	IBA Yutaka 統計数理研究所, モデリング研究系, 准教授 (30213200) SHIMIZU Shohei 大阪大学, 産業科学研究所, 准教授 (10509871) KAWAHARA Yoshinobu 大阪大学, 産業科学研究所, 准教授 (00514796)
Project Period (FY)	2012-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Keywords	知識発見 / データマイニング / 確率モデル / 機械学習 / 希少事象 / 災害
Research Abstract	Various approaches for learning probabilistic models from given data and background knowledge have been studied in the past, however, studies on the probabilistic model learning for rare/special conditions have been very limited. In this study, we developed an efficient and accurate approach to learn probabilistic simulation models for the rare/special conditions by using a given data set and its associated background knowledge. Moreover, we demonstrated a novel framework for the probabilistic estimation and prediction of rare/special events and scenarios through its applications to a rare and large scale natural disaster.