Prediction of Atlantic Nino

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24654150
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: TOZUKA Tomoki 東京大学, 理学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (40376538)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 予測可能性 / 大気海洋結合モデル / 大西洋熱帯域

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Since Atlantic Nino in the tropical Atlantic is known to induce precipitation anomalies over South America and Africa, its impact may be mitigated by its successful prediction. However, its prediction remains to be a difficult task. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (UTCM) that can realistically simulate the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Atlantic, we have conducted ensemble prediction experiments. It is found that Atlantic Nino can be predicted two months ahead with an anomaly correlation coefficient of ATL3 index of 0.6 or higher. We have also investigated how the upper ocean temperature is initialized with an SST-nudging scheme and discussed possible reasons why the scheme has a lower skill over the tropical Atlantic than the tropical Pacific.

Free Research Field

海洋物理学・気候力学