実時間地震動予測：実況値を反映させる手法の構築

2016 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25282114
• Research Institution: Japan, Meteorological Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: 干場 充之 気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部第3研究室, 室長 (60510196)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 岩田 知孝 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (80211762) ; 青井 真 国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, その他部局等, 総括主任研究員 (80360379) ; 中村 洋光 国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, その他部局等, 主任研究員 (60426004) ; 古舘 友通 気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部第3研究室, 主任研究官 (50737856) ; 小木曽 仁 気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部第3研究室, 研究官 (40739140) ; 小寺 祐貴 気象庁気象研究所, 地震津波研究部第3研究室, 研究官 (80780741)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 実時間地震動予測 / 時間発展型 / 実況把握 / 波動伝播 / 地盤増幅

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

研究項目１：リアルタイムモニタリングを用いた時間発展的な予測手法の構築
平成28年度は，平成27年度に引き続き，データ同化手法による地震動の実況値把握と時間発展的な予測手法を組み合わせ，予測手法の構築を行った．減衰構造や散乱構造を導入することでより精度が高まること，構造の導入は遠い未来の予測で効果的であることが分かった．
研究項目２：地震動観測点と予測点での周波数ごとの地盤増幅率の推定とその伝達関数の設計
平成27年度に引き続き，伝達関数の設計を行い成果を取りまとめた．わが国に代表的な強震観測網（防災科研K-NET, KiK-net, 気象庁観測網）のおよそ2700観測点について，地盤増幅率の推定とその伝達関数の設計について論文にまとめ出版された．
上記の研究項目１で構築した時間発展的な予測手法と，研究項目２で推定した地盤増幅特性の伝達関数を，有機的に組み合わせ，地震動即時予測に活用する方策の完成をめざし，研究の取りまとめに着手した．この際に，実用性に寄与できるものを目指し，予測のための計算時間が実時間以下で実行できるように方策を考察した．平成28年に発生した熊本地震に適用に，その地震の際に起こった誘発地震の強震動も想定通り予測できることを示した．また，本研究で狙っている手法の簡易的な手法を熊本地震に対して適用してみて確認したところ，従来手法に比べておよそ2～4秒程度迅速化につながることが分かった．

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

おおむね順調に進展しているが，研究成果のまとめと発表をより確実にするため，平成29年度に期間を延長し，学会発表や論文発表を行う．

Strategy for Future Research Activity

平成29年度は，これまで行ってきた成果のまとめと発表を行う．

Causes of Carryover

この研究計画での成果を公表するため，平成29年度に開催される学会で発表するとともに，論文をまとめる．

Expenditure Plan for Carryover Budget

平成29年度は，学会発表と論文発表を行うために用いる．

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Real-time seismic intensity prediction using frequency dependent site amplification factors (2016)
  • Author(s): Ogiso, M., S. Aoki, and M. Hoshiba
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 68.83 Pages: 1-15
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-016-0467-4
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera, Y., J. Saitou, N. Hayashimoto, S. Adachi, M. Morimoto, Y. Nishimae and M. Hoshiba
  • Journal Title: Earth, Planets and Space Volume: 68:202 Pages: 1-14
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40623-016-0567-1
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Long-period Ground Motion Characteristics and Simulations in the Osaka Basin during the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake (2016)
  • Author(s): Iwata, T., H. Kubo, K. Asano, K. Sato, and S. Aoi
  • Journal Title: Proc. 5th IASPEI/IAEE Int. Symp. on the Effect of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion, Taipei, paper I101A Volume: 1 Pages: 1-11
• [Journal Article] Three-dimensional Ground Motion Simulations of Repeated Arrivals at Amagasaki Strong Motion STation, NW of the Osaka Sedimentary Basin, from Local Events (2016)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, H., T. Iwata, and K. Asano
  • Journal Title: Proc. 5th IASPEI/IAEE Int. Symp. on the Effect of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion, Taipei, paper P101A Volume: 1 Pages: 1-7
• [Journal Article] ECGS & ESC/EAEE Joint Workshop, Earthquake and Induced Multi-Risk Early Warning and Rapid Response, Workshop Report by the Scientific Committee (2016)
  • Author(s): Oth, A., S. Parolai, C. Cauzzi, I. Iervolino, A. Ansal, M. Böse, K. Goda, T. Heaton, M. Hoshiba and A. Zollo
  • Journal Title: Workshop Report by the Scientific Committee, Cahiers Bleus Volume: 31 Pages: III-VI
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Stability of Ocean Bottom Seismograph data exposed to strong shaking: Efforts for utilizing OBS for Earthquake Early Warning (2016)
  • Author(s): Hayashimoto, N., T. Nakamura, M., Hoshiba
  • Journal Title: ECGS & ESC/EAEE Joint Workshop, Earthquake and Induced Multi-Risk Early Warning and Rapid Response, Workshop Report by the Scientific Committee, Cahiers Bleus Volume: 31 Pages: 41-49
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Array Observation of Strong Ground Motion for Real Time Estimation of Current Wavefield (2016)
  • Author(s): Ogiso, M., N. Hayashimoto, and M. Hoshiba
  • Journal Title: ECGS & ESC/EAEE Joint Workshop, Earthquake and Induced Multi-Risk Early Warning and Rapid Response, Workshop Report by the Scientific Committee, Cahiers Bleus Volume: 31 Pages: 75-86
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] The Eight Years of Earthquake Early Warning Operation in the Japan Meteorological Agency (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera, Y., Y. Yamada, S. Adachi, M. Morimoto, Y. Nishimae, and M. Hoshiba
  • Journal Title: ECGS & ESC/EAEE Joint Workshop, Earthquake and Induced Multi-Risk Early Warning and Rapid Response, Workshop Report by the Scientific Committee, Cahiers Bleus Volume: 31 Pages: 17-30
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Induced earthquake during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw7.0): Importance of real-time shake monitoring for Earthquake Early Warning (2016)
  • Author(s): Hoshiba, M. and M. Ogiso
  • Organizer: 2016 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-12 – 2016-12-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Performance Evaluation of the Current System and Simulations of the Next-Generation Methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera, Y., J. Saitou, N. Hayashimoto, S. Adachi, M. Morimoto, Y. Nishimae, and M. Hoshiba
  • Organizer: 2016 AGU Fall Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-12 – 2016-12-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Real-time prediction of ground shaking without source information: Data assimilation and simulation of seismic wave propagation for Earthquake Early Warning (2016)
  • Author(s): Hoshiba, M. and M. Ogiso
  • Organizer: 11th Joint Meeting U.S.-Japan Natural Resources Panel on Earthquake Research
  • Place of Presentation: Napa, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-18 – 2016-11-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Earthquake Early Warning for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake: Performance Evaluation of the Current System and the Next-Generation Methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency (2016)
  • Author(s): Kodera, Y., J. Saitou, N. Hayashimoto, S. Adachi, M. Morimoto, Y. Nishimae, and M. Hoshiba
  • Organizer: 11th Joint Meeting U.S.-Japan Natural Resources Panel on Earthquake Research
  • Place of Presentation: Napa, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-18 – 2016-11-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Numerical Shake Prediction for Earthquake Early Warning: real-time prediction of ground shaking without source information (2016)
  • Author(s): Hoshiba, M.
  • Organizer: Earthquake Science Center Seminars at USGS Menlo Park
  • Place of Presentation: Menlo Park, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-25 – 2016-04-25
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Numerical Shake Prediction for Earthquake Early Warning: Precise and Rapid Prediction even for Heterogeneous Distribution of Ground Shaking (2016)
  • Author(s): Hoshiba, M., and M. Ogiso
  • Organizer: The 2016 Annual Meeting of Seismological Society of America
  • Place of Presentation: Reno, USA
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-20 – 2016-04-22
  • Int'l Joint Research