2015 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report
Quantitative Assessments of Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms and Its Participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
| Project/Area Number |
25285076
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| Research Institution | Osaka University |
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Principal Investigator |
利 博友 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40283460)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
大槻 恒裕 大阪大学, 国際公共政策研究科, 教授 (40397633)
板倉 健 名古屋市立大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (90405217)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Keywords | 貿易政策 / TPP / 環太平洋経済連携協定 / 農政改革 / FTA / CGE分析 |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
During FY2015, we updated the baseline scenario of our model and conducted simulation experiments for the following five policy scenarios: (1) The member countries of the TPP increase from 12 in 2016 to 13 (+ Korea) in 2018 and 16 (+ Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand) in 2021. (2) Same sequencing as (1) until 2023, plus the enlargement of the TPP to 19 economies (+ China, India and Taiwan) in 2024. (3) Productivity of agricultural sectors in Japan increases gradually from 1% a year in 2018 to 1.5% a year in 2030, resulting from Japan's agricultural policy reforms. (4) Productivity of manufacturing sectors increases from 1% a year to 1.1% a year for the TPP members. (5) The creation of the TPP will result in reductions in compliance costs associated with rules of origin (ROOs). The same TPP enlargement sequencing is used in (2)-(5).
Under the first two policy scenarios, Japan's economic welfare is projected to increase by 0.6-0.7% in 2030. Under scenario 3, its economic welfare is expected to increase by 0.9%. In addition, the extent of output contraction of agri-cultural and processed food sectors in Japan would be reduced considerably, particularly in grains and meats. Under scenario 4, the welfare gain of Japan is projected to increase significantly to 2.6%. Under scenario 5, it would boost welfare gains of Japan and other member economies even further. These results were presented at the 18th Annual Confer- ence on Global Economic Analysis, the XIVth Conference on Korea and the World Economy, and at the 2016 ASSA/AEA annual meetings.
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| Research Progress Status |
27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Causes of Carryover |
27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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| Expenditure Plan for Carryover Budget |
27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。
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