Development of Methodology for Risk Assessment Based on FSA Guideline to Establish International Standardized Rule

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25289320
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Naval and maritime engineering
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: SHINODA TAKESHI 九州大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (80235548)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): TANAKA Takashi 九州大学, 大学院工学研究院, 准教授 (70432854)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: リスクアセスメント / Formal Safety Assessment / 海難事故 / ヒューマンファクター / リスク軽減対策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this paper, we examine the application of the Bayesian network for accident occurrence modeling, which can reveal the causal relationships between human factors in maneuvering vessels and ship collisions. Then we create risk analysis models for the collision accidents using the Bayesian network. This model consists of three major components which are; (a) the model of ship maneuvering, (b) the model of collision factors and, (c) the model of effective factors for Risk Control Options (RCOs) as safety measures to reduce collision risks. Collision Risks are analyzed by using the conditional probability table calculated using the constructed collision database. Evaluation of RCOs for collision is calculated using the effective dominance index. Finally, a trial cost-benefit analysis for RCOs is considered through gross cost of averting fatality index in the guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO (International Maritime Organization) in 2002.

Free Research Field

工学・船舶海洋工学