Spatial distributions of physical parameters in depth inferred from seismic activity data

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25330053
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Tokiwa University (2014-2015); The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (2013)
• Principal Investigator: Iwata Takaki 常磐大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 准教授 (30418991)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, リスク解析戦略研究センター, 名誉教授 (70000213) ; TODA Shinji 東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 教授 (80313047)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 統計科学 / 地震 / 点過程解析 / ベイズ統計 / 固体地球物理学 / マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法 / 地震サイクル / 摩擦パラメータ

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project aimed to develop a statistical method to estimate the spatial distribution of slip of a large earthquake and to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of frictional parameter. A uniqueness of the developed method is to use seismic activity data, which would contain physical information such as stress state in depth but has not been analyzed thoroughly. It was applied to the real aftershock sequences of several large events, in particular ones at a plate boundary. As a result of the analysis, inferred slip distributions are consistent with those estimated in previous studies. It is also revealed that the dependency of the frictional parameter upon depth is statistically significant.

Free Research Field

統計科学および地震学