Evaluation on Probabilistic Coastal Flood Risk including uncertanity

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25350503
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Ibaraki University
• Principal Investigator: NOBUOKA Hisamichi 茨城大学, 工学部, 准教授 (00250986)
• Research Collaborator: NABETANI YASUYUKI 茨城大学, 理工学研究科 ; SHINA AKIRA 茨城大学, 理工学研究科 ; MAKINO KOHEI 茨城大学, 理工学研究科 ; ONOUE YOSHIYUKI 茨城大学, 理工学研究科 ; KAMAYA HIDEAKI 茨城大学, 理工学研究科 ; SUZUKI TAKUMI 茨城大学, 理工学研究科
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 津波 / リスク / ハザードマップ / 高潮 / 想定外 / 確率 / 期待値 / 被害想定

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We had lesson we should prepared any scale of the disaster even of which return period is quite low from the tsunami disaster due to The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. However, today’s tsunami hazard map also expresses one flood, of which return period is around 1000 years. This study shows the probabilistic tsunami/storm surge hazard map with uncertainty by use of several probabilistic approaches. The return period of present maps is to 10,000 year or longer. The flood area of present map in which return period is about 1000 year is almost adjust that public hazard map.

Free Research Field

海岸工学