Uncertainty assessment in future storm surge risk projections using dynamic-stochastic downscaling

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25420522
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: YASUDA TOMOHIRO 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (60378916)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): MORI Nobuhito 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90371476) ; NAKAJO Sota 熊本大学, 大学院自然科学研究科, 助教 (20590871)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 高潮 / 確率台風モデル / バイアス補正 / アンサンブル / 不確実性 / GCM / RCM

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study projects future change in storm surge by two approaches: a physical approach by dynamic simulation using general circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) outputs, and a stochastic approach by stochastic typhoon model (STM).
Storm surge simulations using RCM outputs projects future change in storm surge caused by climate change. Modified STM employing a cluster analysis projects typhoon characteristics under future climate employing ensemble GCM dataset. Sensitivity analysis of typhoon characteristics clarifies worst class typhoon conditions causing severest storm surge in a target bay. Event attribution analysis employing STM enables to estimate return period of the worst storm surge occurrence.

Free Research Field

海岸工学，沿岸防災