Developing harvest prediction model in a national scale by adding up prefectural final cutting and utilization thinning volumes

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25450207
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Forest science
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: HIROSHIMA Takuya 東京大学, 農学生命科学研究科, 講師 (40302591)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): NAKAJIMA Tohru 東京大学, 大学院農学生命科学研究科, 助教 (10598775) ; KANOMATA Hidesato 独立行政法人森林総合研究所, 林業経営・政策研究領域, 研究員 (00353649)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 主伐 / 間伐 / 搬出 / 都道府県 / 再生プラン / 国産材

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed harvest prediction model in a national scale by adding up prefectural final cutting and utilization thinning volumes and discussed the possibility of achieving domestic timber supply goal of 3.9 million m3 in the year 2020. To achieve the goal, it is required to fulfill 1.4-1.9 times of final cutting volume and 1.9-2.7 times of utilization thinning volume compared with those volumes in 2012. As a result, to increase final cutting volume in 2020 1.6 times from that in 2012, it is considered effective to shorten the final cutting rotation age by -5% in every 5 years by harvesting around the peak of age distribution (55-65 years old) of current planted forests intensively. Furthermore, to increase utilization thinning volume in 2020 2.0 times from that in 2012, it is required to fulfill 1.02-1.88 times of thinning area compared with that in 2012 and 28-70% of extraction ratio of thinned trees in overall prefectures.

Free Research Field

森林計画