Analysis of fishing efficiency by new statistical modeling: development of methods, application of pelagic fish and marine species near Kagoshima Bay

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25450278
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Aquatic bioproduction science
• Research Institution: Kagoshima University
• Principal Investigator: SHONO HIROSHI 鹿児島大学, 農水産獣医学域水産学系, 准教授 (30344328)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): OHTOMI JUN 鹿児島大学, 農水産獣医学域水産学系, 教授 (10253915) ; MASUDA YASUJI 鹿児島大学, 農水産獣医学域水産学系, 准教授 (70107861)
• Research Collaborator: HIGASHI TAKESHI ; HORIE MASAHIRO
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 水産資源解析 / 統計モデル / 漁獲効率 / 赤潮 / 傾向スコア / サポートベクター回帰 / 一般化加法モデル / Tweedie分布

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of the present study is to obtain new knowledge through the application of fresh statistical modeling to various issues for fish population dynamics, and we conducted the following analyses:
1) Analysis of fishing efficiency for tuna species caught by purse seine fisheries in the Western Pacific Ocean based on propensity score method, 2) Catch prediction for juvenile bluefin tuna in the water close to Kagoshima based on support vector regression and generalized additive model, 3) Prediction of occurrence of red tide in the Yatsushiro sea using weather data and water survey data based on Tweedie regression analysis.
As a result, it showed the effect of catch reduction with large mesh size of the purse seine fisheries in study 1) and highly accurate predictive values were obtained in items 2) and 3).

Free Research Field

水産資源解析学、生物統計学