Modeling for emerging process of social cooperative behavior to prevent pandemic of influenza and its analysis

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25560165
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Social systems engineering/Safety system
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: TANIMOTO Jun 九州大学, 総合理工学研究科(研究院), 教授 (60227238)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): HAGISHIMA Aya 九州大学, 大学院総合理工学研究院, 准教授 (60294980) ; IKEGAYA Naoki 九州大学, 大学院総合理工学研究院, 助教 (70628213)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: パンデミック / 進化ゲーム / 感染ダイナミクス / 複雑ネットワーク

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study has successfully explored how people’s decision-making process with social dilemma of individual vaccination, namely whether or not to be vaccinated is influenced in a complex realistic social system, by means of the model of dynamics for epidemic spreading on a social network applied to evolutionary game theory. On underlying networks, both epidemic and information of agent’s strategy are transferred, where the former is modeled by SIR and the latter is emulated as a spatial evolutionary game. Simulation results imply that both the vaccination acceptance fraction and final epidemic size are significantly affected by how strategy updating happens; namely whether he/ she copying from a neighbor or imitating a social trend, and underlying network topologies. The study poses one example of how the social physics helps to understand complex phenomenon taking place in a real world.

Free Research Field

複雑系物理学