Development of a Statistics-based Spatio-temporal Population Distribution Model and its Application to the Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25560180
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Building Research Institute (2014-2015); Kyoto University (2013)
• Principal Investigator: Himoto Keisuke 国立研究開発法人建築研究所, その他部局等, その他 (90436527)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): TAKARA Kaoru 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (80144327)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 流動人口 / 暴露人口 / 統計情報 / 自然災害リスク

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Extent of fatality due to natural disaster depends largely on spatial distribution of population at the moment disaster occurs. In this study, a computational model for estimating day-long spatio-temporal distribution of population is developed using a number of country-wide statistical data. The model estimates behavior of individuals by considering their attributes including age, gender, occupation, place of work, and place of residence. As a case study, the model is applied to the Keihanshin metropolitan area. Estimated maximum number of commuters unable to return home in an expecting earthquake scenario was between 1.1 and 1.9 million depending on the assumptions on traffic disruption following disaster. The model is also applied to the Kesennuma city which is struck by the huge tsunami at the occasion of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The result showed that the number of people in the tsunami inundated area ranges between 23,500 and 26,000 depending on the time of its occurrence.

Free Research Field

防災計画