Study on the economic impacts of the Tokai earthquake measures

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25590065
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Public finance/Public economy
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: Miyazaki Takeshi 九州大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (40458485)
• Research Collaborator: YAMADA TOSHIHIRO 応用アール・エム・エス株式会社 ; TAKASUGI TSUYOSHI 応用アール・エム・エス株式会社 ; OHNO TAICHI 応用アール・エム・エス株式会社
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 東海地震 / 大規模地震対策特別措置法 / 地震財特法 / 政策評価 / 耐震化

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The objective of this study is to evaluate whether the Tokai earthquake measures, which have been implemented since 1980, have mitigated disaster damages from an economic viewpoint. We obtain the following results. The disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing are 18 billion JPY (about 0.18 billion USD) for Yamanashi and 0.26 trillion JPY (2.6 billion USD) for Shizuoka. A simple before-after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect. The Tokai earthquake measures statistically do not mitigate housing damage predicted in the event of the Tokai earthquake.

Free Research Field

財政学・金融論