Spatiotemporal quantification of agroclimate potential with global warming in rice yield in Hokkaido

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25750119
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Geography
• Research Institution: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
• Principal Investigator: NEMOTO Manabu 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 北海道農業研究センター・生産環境研究領域, 主任研究員 (10469843)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 温暖化影響評価 / 水稲収量予測 / 水稲発育モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Growth and yield characteristics of rice varieties for Hokkaido region under the hotter air temperature than at present were clarified, and we investigated the yield estimation in future based on the rice varietal characteristics. Field experiment to analyze the rice characteristics under the hot condition was conducted at Ishigaki island in Okinawa prefecture located in the southernmost region in Japan. Rice developmental rate (DVR) model including not only air temperature but also solar radiation as meteorological variables we revised in this study increased its estimate accuracy relatively to traditional DVR model. Moreover, we developed the estimation methods for rice yield components with meteorological elements divided according to rice developmental stages. In future projection at 2.5℃ higher than at present, rice yield in a number of areas in Hokkaido sustains or decrease in comparison to the present, and the yield decreases especially in rice variety of panicle weight type.

Free Research Field

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