Developing a recursive-dynamic multiregional CGE model for Japan for assessing the economic impact of a future possible natural disaster

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25750144
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Nagoya University
• Principal Investigator: YAMAZAKI MASATO 名古屋大学, 減災連携研究センター, 寄附研究部門助教 (60628981)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 自然災害 / 経済被害 / 応用一般均衡モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

As economic losses caused by natural disasters increase, assessing the economic impact of a future possible natural disaster is becoming more and more important. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a strong candidate for such an assessment. The study develops a recursive-dynamic multiregional CGE model for Japan and then calibrates a set of substitution parameters for this model. A heuristic method is employed for the calibration, in which the substitution parameters in the CGE model are adjusted so as to reproduce the actual economic impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake.

Free Research Field

経済シミュレーション分析