Global stochastic tropical cyclone model controlled by environmental factor and storm surge risk assessment

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25820227
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kumamoto University
• Principal Investigator: Nakajo Sota 熊本大学, 自然科学研究科, 助教 (20590871)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 台風 / 高潮 / 気候変動 / モンテカルロ法

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We improved the global stochastic tropical cyclone model by cluster analysis on tropical cyclone data. Then sea surface temperature condition has been included to one of the principle component of probability distribution function of this stochastic model. This improvement allowed future prediction of effect of sea surface temperature on the development and dissipation process of tropical cyclone. We combined the GCM results, global stochastic tropical cyclone model and neural network model for prediction of future disaster event of storm surge at Osaka bay and so on. Event attribution analysis of storm surge in Yatsushiro bay, Osaka bay, Ise bay and Tokyo bay were performed. Then we assessed the potential of storm surge disaster of each bay and rough estimation of return period of major tropical cyclone condition.

Free Research Field

海岸工学