ABM using GIS of Physician distribution for physician supply estimation

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25870174
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Medical sociology; Hygiene and public health
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: TOYOKAWA Satoshi 東京大学, 医学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (40345046)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 公衆衛生学 / 保健医療政策学 / 医師供給

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The study build a simulation model using agent based modeling (ABM) according to physician behavior owing their clinic to contribute the estimation of physician supply. Our observational study in Hokkaido, the most northern part of Japan, indicated the physician who born in the prefecture work more in place where few people live than ones come from other prefecture. We built the simulation of physician and clinic distribution of Hokkaido. We simulate their distribution under the different proportion for the sensitivity analysis of the birth place of medical students. There were small differences in Gini coefficients and Population per physician of the results from the sensitivity analysis (0%, 10%, 20%, 50%). This simulation study showed the health policy for physician supply according to the birthplace in the entrance examinations to the medical school has limited improvement.

Free Research Field

公衆衛生学