Political costs in international crises: an empirical test of the audience cost model

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25885084
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: International relations
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: KURIZAKI Shuhei 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授 (70708099)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-08-30 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 国際政治 / 戦争の原因 / 観衆費用 / 国際危機 / ゲーム理論 / 構造推定 / 安全保障

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The goal of this project was to identify empirical evidence for the so-called audience cost (AC) model. While the AC model provides a coherent answer to several key questions in IR, observing AC has been considered to be beyond reach. With structural estimation of the standard AC model against observaional data on international disputes, we successfully identified the existence and size of AC as well as its properties: it correlates with the degree of democracy and it coerces the opponent to capitulate in international disputes. These and other results confirm theoretical predictions of the AC model, and the evidence presented in this study is the first of its kind. This study provides empirical foundations for the AC literature, and an article that summarizes these contributions has been accepted for publication in the leading journal, International Organization.

Free Research Field

国際政治学