Climate change impact on rice yield with land-use change scenarios

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25892004
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Agricultural environmental engineering/Agricultural information engineering
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: YOSHIDA RYUHEI 東北大学, 理学(系)研究科(研究院), 助教 (70701308)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-08-30 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 温暖化 / 土地利用変化 / コメ収量

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We estimated climate change impacts on rice production with high-resolution climate data by downscaling global scenario and composing regional climate data by land-use change, taking eastern Japan as an example. Downscaled scenario showed that surface temperature increased approximately 3 degree throughout the analysed area in future climate (2081-2100), relative to that in present climate (1981-2000). Although yields of currently cropped cultivars were expected to increase approximately 20 % in the future climate, several high-temperature stress became evident. Low temperature stress reduced in the future climate. However, low-temperature stress was still major concern than high-temperatute stress. Considering expected yield and temperature stresses, followings would be possible options for stable rice production in future climate: 1) by keeping current leading cultivars and 2) by indroducing cultivars such as low senstitivity to temperature for phenology.

Free Research Field

農業気象学