The impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence and future prediction by long-term stroke registry

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25893098
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Hygiene and public health
• Research Institution: Fukushima Medical University (2014); Shiga University of Medical Science (2013)
• Principal Investigator: NAGAI Masato 福島県立医科大学, 医学部, 助教 (60707199)
• Research Collaborator: KITA Yoshikuni 敦賀市立看護大学, 看護学部看護学科, 准教授 ; TAKASHIMA Naoyuki 滋賀医科大学, 社会医学講座公衆衛生学部門, 講師
• Project Period (FY): 2013-08-30 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 脳卒中 / 罹患率 / 罹患者数 / 将来推計 / 推移 / Age-period cohort model

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study examined 1) the trend in stroke incidence from 1990 to 2010, 2) the impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence trend, and 3) the estimated future number of stroke incidence.
The age-adjusted first-ever stroke incidence (/100,000 person-years) nearly halved in men from 1990-1992: 265.6 to 2008-2010: 124.5 and women from 1990-1992: 185.8 to 2008-2010: 102.2 during 20 years. The impact of period effect and cohort effect on incidence was small. The estimated future number of stroke incidence in participants aged 30 years or over increased 26,572 (2010：101,527→2030：128,099) in men and 35,154 (2010: 82,852→2030: 118,006）) in women until 2030.

Free Research Field

疫学