Development of risk assessment models for infectious diseases considering changes in climate, society and ecosystem

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26241025
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental risk control and evaluation
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Fukushi Kensuke 東京大学, サステイナビリティ学連携研究機構, 教授 (30282114)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 渡部 徹 山形大学, 農学部, 教授 (10302192) ; 渡辺 幸三 愛媛大学, 理工学研究科, 准教授 (80634435)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 感染症 / リスク評価 / 途上国都市 / 洪水 / 気候変動 / 下痢症 / デング熱 / DALY

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Models for quantitative risk assessment of infectious diseases induced by urban flood were developed, considering effects of climate and societal changes, in some cities in Asian developing countries. One of the developed model was a QMRA-based model which enabled us to estimate risk of norovirus infection taking human behaviors in flood setting and human-to-human transmission in households into account. Another model to estimate risk of dengue fever based on climatic parameters, focusing on seasonal and spatial changes of its prevalence in cities, was developed using an algorithm for machine learning.
We also clarified infectious diseases which happen frequently in flood settings and inhabitants’ feeling to the diseases by means of interview surveys in the target cities. According to the result, the method to calculate DALY lost by the infectious diseases was modified and finally the economic loss due to the diseases induced by urban flood was quantified.

Free Research Field

サステイナビリティ学