2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Studies on mechanisms for variability in Typhoon track forecasts
| Project/Area Number |
26282111
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
山崎 哲 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, アプリケーションラボ, 研究員 (20633887)
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| Research Collaborator |
Sato Kazutoshi
Nakano Masuo
Matsueda Mio
Miyachi Tetsuro
Yamaguchi Munehiko
Yamane Shozo
Yoshioka Hiroaki
Yoshida Akira (Kuwano Akira)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 熱帯低気圧 / 大気大循環モデル / 数値天気予報 / データ同化 / アンサンブル予報 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A cross analysis-model forecast system has been developed. Several research and operational atmospheric general circulation models and analyses were employed to conduct a number of forecast experiments, including Typhoon Yagi 2013, Super-typhoon Haiyan 2013 that caused damages in Philippines, and Typhoon Prapiroon 2018 that approached Japan prior to the heavy rainfall event in July 2018. Sensitivity to initial conditions and model and its resolution are clarified in these experiments. The improved ensemble data assimilation system were used to identify contributions to better forecasts including typhoon tracks. Parts of the studies conducted in this project contributed to the development of operational consensus and genesis forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency.
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| Free Research Field |
大気シミュレーション
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
台風の発生予報や強度予報は，進路予報が正確であることを前提としており，台風に関する情報の中で進路予報は防災上最も重要なものと考えられる。近年台風の進路予報誤差は1日で平均100kmを下回る程度に改善されているが，時に大外しする事例が見られる。本研究では台風進路予測の誤差の要因を分析する手法を開発し，数々の事例に適用して誤差の特徴を明らかにした上で，気象庁が行う現業の台風予報の開発・改善を通じて社会的に貢献することができた。
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