2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Inductive learning theory and its application to experimental asset markets
Project/Area Number |
26285043
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Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
Section | 一般 |
Research Field |
Economic theory
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Research Institution | Waseda University (2016-2017) University of Tsukuba (2014-2015) |
Principal Investigator |
|
Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
秋山 英三 筑波大学, システム情報系, 教授 (40317300)
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Research Collaborator |
HANAKI Nobuyuki ソフィアアンティポリス大学, 経済経営学部, 教授
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Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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Keywords | 帰納的学習 / 帰納的ゲーム理論 / 資産取引実験 / 資産価格バブル / 高次認識 / 経験 / 期待形成 |
Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The purpose of this project is to construct inductive learning theory to describe learning process of bounded rational decision makers, which is based on their experiences. We focused on experimental asset markets, and analyzed their behavioral data for the following purposes: (i) Classification of subjects’ rationality, (ii) Extraction of effects of their higher order beliefs, (iii) Their predictions of future prices, and (iv) Effects of their heterogeneous experiences. As a result, we found that the bubble of asset prices is facilitated by heterogeneous cognitive abilities, and is due to subjects’ higher order beliefs. Furthermore, we also observed that the experienced subjects in experimental markets adaptively learn price paths in their present markets. In addition, we show a new methodology of experimental assets markets to control subjects’ incentive when they have more incentives.
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Free Research Field |
認識論的ゲーム理論
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