Non-stationary analysis of magnitude and frequency on flood hazards and estimation of largest-class floods under a changing climate

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26289163
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: Tachikawa Yasuto 京都大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (40227088)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): Kim Sunmin 京都大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (10546013) ; 椎葉 充晴 京都大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 名誉教授 (90026352) ; 萬 和明 京都大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 助教 (90554212) ; 市川 温 京都大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 准教授 (30293963)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 水災害 / 気候変動 / 洪水 / 治水計画 / 擬似温暖化 / 水害リスクカーブ / d4PDF / 降雨流出モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Changes of extreme rainfall and flood events under a changing climate were examined using a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis method. Also, largest-class floods were estimated using outputs of a pseudo global warming typhoon simulation experiment. Then, changes of probabilistic characteristics of rainfall and flood extremes and their largest-class values were analyzed using the large ensemble climate simulation database, d4PDF. Adding the hazard change analysis, a method to derive a flood risk curve, a relationship between annual maximum economic damage due to inundation and its exceedance probability, was developed and applied to show the change of flood risk due to climate change. Through these studies, we showed an increase of flood hazard and flood risk under a changing climate.

Free Research Field

水文学