2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Elucidating the impacts of variations in major cereal crop productions due to abnormal weather condition on world food supply, demand and population under malnutrition
| Project/Area Number |
26310305
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Partial Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 特設分野 |
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| Research Field |
Food Cycle Research
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| Research Institution | Waseda University (2017)
Shizuoka University (2014-2016) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
飯泉 仁之直 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農業環境変動研究センター, 主任研究員 (60616613)
櫻井 玄 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農業環境変動研究センター, 研究員 (70452737)
朝日 弓未 静岡大学, 工学研究科, 准教授 (40453823)
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| Research Collaborator |
KOIZUMI Tatsuji 農林水産政策研究所, 主任研究官
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-07-18 – 2018-03-31
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| Keywords | 環境変動 / 生産性ショック / 食料供給 / 経済影響 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Firstly, we coupled a model for crop growth and production under the regional water resources condition, which is estimated by a river discharge flow simulation model, with economic model. Next, we projected the climate and land use change impacts on crop production and the market price simultaneously. As a result, there were no significant differences in variations in market prices of crops under many climate and land use change scenarios (totally 100 cases). That is, climate and land use change induced the increase in market prices but did not affect the variations in market prices significantly. Specifically, in Vietnam and India, it was showed the high increase rate in price compared to the initial year, while the increase rate of Korea was the lowest. Detailed analyses implied that agricultural investment policy and world trade mechanisms absorbed such variations in market price due to climate and land use change, resulting in reduction in high market price volatility.
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| Free Research Field |
生態系モデリング
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