Statistical analysis of an influenza infection system

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26330045
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: Kyoto University (2016-2017); Oita University (2014-2015)
• Principal Investigator: Eshima Nobuooki 京都大学, 高大接続・入試センター, 特定教授 (20203630)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 徳丸 治 大分大学, 福祉健康科学部, 教授 (40360151)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: インフルエンザ / サーベイランスデータ / ワクチン接種 / 一般化線形モデル / パス分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study has been made to analyze the influenza surveillance data in 1999/2000 to 2017/2018 influenza seasons in Japan and to develop a statistical method for analyzing causal relationships among variables. The influenza vaccine efficacy and effectiveness cannot be examined from reported influenza-like illness (ILI) patient and vaccine dose data; however, it is statistically concluded that reported ILI patient data have an increasing trend, despite a rigorously increasing practice of influenza vaccination in Japan. The result may come from the methods of vaccine administration and/or environments in Japan. In order to control the infection, it is concluded that the vaccine efficacy and effectiveness must be studied over flu seasons and also, we have to clarify the cause of the contradictory phenomenon shown in the ILI patient surveillance and flu vaccine data in Japan. A basic method of path analysis has been made in view of entropy.

Free Research Field

統計学