Empirical Analysis on price stickiness and inflation expectations

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26380233
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: Ueno Yuko 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 非常勤研究員 (80721498)
• Research Collaborator: Ryoichi Namba 中部圏社会経済研究所, 研究員
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: インフレ期待 / 合理的期待形成 / 実験 / ニューケインジアンフィリップスカーブ / フォワードルッキング / 価格の粘着性 / 情報

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We analyze inflation expectations of Japanese firms and consumers by using micro-level datasets of firms' prospects for their sales prices and consumers' inflation expectations. We then estimate the relationships between the realiｚed inflation and the firms' prospects by sector. Although further improvement is still required, our estimation results indicate that the forward-looking factors (i.e.inflation prospects) have played significant roles in the inflation trend, particularly in the processing manufacturing sectors once our economy fell into deflation. Regarding consumers' expectations, we set up an experimental framework to investigate they are consistent with rational expectations. The results clearly indicate rationality in consumers' expectations, implying the importance of the timely information provision by monetary authorities. To sum up, we consider this research contributes to the literature of the mechanism of inflation expectation formation of major economic agents.

Free Research Field

労働経済学、マクロ経済学