Developing new leading indicators using professional forecasters' information

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26380332
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Kanagawa University
• Principal Investigator: IIZUKA NOBUO 神奈川大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50612389)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: リアルタイムデータ / 経済予測の評価 / 景気循環分析

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We analyzed the characteristics of the ESP forecast survey, which is the first monthly survey of macroeconomic forecasts conducted by professional forecasters in Japan and created new leading indicators for the Japanese economy.
Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between the forecast horizon, the forecast accuracy, and the cross-sectional disagreement among forecasters. Utilizing these characteristics, we developed a new method of Nowcasting, forecasting the preliminary figures of GDP before its publication, and presented it at academic conference in Japan and abroad. In addition, we conducted a revision study of GDP statistics subject to prediction and the problems of estimation methods considered to be the cause, presented at domestic academic societies and published in research journals.

Free Research Field

経済統計