2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Minimum wage effects on employment, unemployment, economic growth and welfare
| Project/Area Number |
26380343
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Aichi Prefectural University (2018)
Osaka University of Economics (2014-2017) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 政策効果 / デフレ / 消費 / 雇用 / 失業 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The theoretical research argues how an increase in minimum wage affects employment, consumption, and social welfare with dynamic general equilibrium model without market frictions. The study demonstrates that a minimum wage hike reduces an actual unemployment rate and has positive effects on an employment rate under the demand-shortage economy whereas they do not under a non-demand shortage economy. The study also shows that optimal minimum wage which maximizes social welfare and minimizes an actual unemployment rate when the economy faces the demand-shortage initially. These findings imply that the minimum wage can be considered as one of the effective policy for overcoming deflation and stagnation although it increases the natural rate of unemployment.
The empirical research shows the increase in minimum wage from 2008 to 2010 in Japan has statistically insignificant positive effects on employment, but has statistically significant positive effects on hourly wage and total wage costs.
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| Free Research Field |
マクロ経済学
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
最低賃金の日本の実証研究は蓄積が少ない。本研究はわが国で初めて事業所を対象に、最低賃金政策の政策効果を分析し、飲食店事業所において雇用に負の影響を与えないことを示した。引き続き実証研究の蓄積は必要であるが、わが国の最低賃金の役割を考える上で、本研究の結果は重要であると考えられる。
また、本研究で示した動学的一般均衡モデルによる分析結果は、デフレマインドから抜けられない、長期停滞に直面する日本経済の処方箋として重要な意義を持つと考えられる。学術的には、最低賃金政策を動学的一般均衡モデルとして示したことは、先行研究にはない斬新さがあると考えられる。
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