Study of the initial disturbance of tropical cyclone and its development over the Western Pacific

2016 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26400475
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: 那須野 智江 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, シームレス環境予測研究分野, 主任研究員 (20358766)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 台風発生過程 / 西太平洋 / アジアモンスーン / 季節内振動 / 全球非静力学モデル

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

西太平洋における台風発生過程に関する理解を深めることを目的に、現場観測の行われた台風発生事例（2008年台風6号、Fengshen）を主な対象として、大規模場（モンスーン循環、季節内振動など）や総観規模場（対流圏中層の気圧の谷など）およびメソスケールの過程に関する数値計算および解析を昨年度までに継続して行い、以下の知見を得た。
Fengshenの発生期には、西太平洋モンスーンの開始と季節内振動の活発化が重なり、これに伴い対流圏の下層に(1)大規模な低気圧性の渦が形成されると共に(2)湿潤化され、渦域で潜熱加熱（雲域の形成）が起きた。潜熱加熱により、大規模な渦は上方に伸長して中層の気圧の谷と結合し、台風の発生に好都合な環境場を与えた。太平洋を横断して西太平洋に到達した台風初期渦は、この環境場の下で、直立した深い渦構造を確立し、台風に発達した。季節内振動に伴う大規模な下層渦・湿潤域や潜熱加熱の役割を確認するため、これらを抑制した感度実験を行った結果、台風の発生・発達が著しく妨げられることが分かった。以上の結果から、この事例においては、季節内振動が対流活動により大規模な深い渦域を形成することで、台風の発生が促進されたことが示された。付加的な知見として、高解像度計算では、台風中心付近の構造を正確に表現することにより、進路に改善が見られることも分かった。同様の改善傾向は、複数の全球高解像度モデルを用いた台風予測相互比較実験においても確認された。
数値モデルの高度化による台風予測の改善が世界的に進められている中で、未だ極めて例の少ない超高解像度（3.5km）全球数値実験により、多重スケールに亘る発生過程や、進路予測の改善例を提示したことは、科学的に新しい知見を加え、予報精度の向上や予測可能性の延長に資するものである。得られた研究成果を論文および学会等において公表した。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] 国際太平洋研究センター(米国)
  • Country Name: U.S.A.
  • Counterpart Institution: 国際太平洋研究センター
• [Journal Article] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results (2017)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Journal Title: Geoscientific Model Development Volume: 10 Pages: 1363-1381
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2016-184
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Genesis of Super Cyclone Pam (2015): Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Modulation of Large-Scale Environmental Circulation and the Madden Julian Oscillation (2017)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Tomoki Miyakawa, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh
  • Journal Title: Monthly Weather Review Volume: 印刷中 Pages: 印刷中
  • DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0208.1
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in an AMIP-type Experiment by NICAM (2017)
  • Author(s): Kikuchi Kazuyoshi, Kodama Chihiro, Nasuno Tomoe, Nakano Masuo, Miura Hiroaki, Satoh Masaki, Noda Akira, Yamada Yohei
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 48 Pages: 2507-2528
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3219-z
  • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Improvement of a cloud microphysics scheme for a global nonhydrostatic model using TRMM and a satellite simulator (2017)
  • Author(s): Roh Woosub, Masaki Satoh, Tomoe Nasuno
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Atmosperic Sciences Volume: 74 Pages: 167-184
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0027.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer (2017)
  • Author(s): Masaki Satoh, Hirofumi Tomita, Hisashi Yashiro, Yoshiyuki Kajikawa, Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Tsuyoshi Yamaura, Tomoki Miyakawa, Masuo Nakano, Chihiro Kodama, Akira T. Noda, Tomoe Nasuno, Yohei Yamada, Yoshiki Fukutomi
  • Journal Title: Progress in Earth and Planetary Science Volume: 4 Pages: 13
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40645-017-0127-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Geoscience Letters Volume: 3 Pages: 32
  • DOI: 10.1186/s40562-016-0064-1
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Role of the vertical structure of a simulated tropical cyclone in its motion: A case study of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2016)
  • Author(s): Hiroyuki Yamada, Tomoe Nasuno, Wataru Yanase, and Masaki Satoh
  • Journal Title: Scientific Online Letter on the Atmosphere Volume: 12 Pages: 203-208
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2016-041
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Presentation] Genesis Of Super Cyclone Pam (2015): Modulation Of Low-frequency Large-scale Circulations And The Madden-julian Oscillation By Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (2017)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Tomoki Miyakawa, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 14th annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2017-08-10
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2017)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 14th annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2017-08-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7) (2017)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 14th annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Singapore
  • Year and Date: 2017-08-09
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 2015年3月のサイクロンPamの発生について：海面水温偏差によるMJOと大規模循環場の変調 (2017)
  • Author(s): 中野満寿男、久保田尚之、宮川知己、那須野智江、佐藤正樹
  • Organizer: 2017年度日本気象学会春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター（東京都渋谷区）
  • Year and Date: 2017-05-28
• [Presentation] Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2017)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Annual Meeting 2017
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2017-05-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Impact of an El Nino forcing on intense tropical cyclones in ensemble simulations of a high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model (2016)
  • Author(s): Yohei Yamada, Chihiro Kodama, Masaki Satoh, Masuo Nakano, Tomoe Nasuno, Masato Sugi
  • Organizer: American Geophysics Union 2016 Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Ｆrancisco (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-16
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Numerical Models (NHM2016)
  • Place of Presentation: ザプリンス箱根芦ノ湖（神奈川県足柄下郡）
  • Year and Date: 2016-12-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7) (2016)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Organizer: 4th International Workshop on Nonhydrostatic Numerical Models (NHM2016)
  • Place of Presentation: ザプリンス箱根芦ノ湖（神奈川県足柄下郡）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-30
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Characteristics of tropical rainfall and diabatic heating in Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7) (2016)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sawada, Hideaki Kawai, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Akiyoshi Wada, Masuo Nakano, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Eiki Shindo, Takeshi Iriguchi, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Masato Sugi, Tomoe Nasuno, Wataru Sasaki, Hiromitsu Fuchigami, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Organizer: Workshop on Global Precipitation System 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構（神奈川県横浜市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-29
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global cloud-permitting simulations of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: Workshop on Global Precipitation System 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構（神奈川県横浜市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-28
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7) (2016)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi2, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Organizer: Workshop on Global Precipitation System 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構（神奈川県横浜市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-28
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Intense tropical cyclones in ensemble simulations using a high-resolution nonhydrostatic model (2016)
  • Author(s): Yohei Yamada, Chihiro Kodama, Masaki Satoh, Masuo Nakano, Tomoe Nasuno, Masato Sugi
  • Organizer: Workshop on global precipitation systems 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 海洋研究開発機構（神奈川県横浜市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-28
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 強い台風の発生頻度に注目した 1997／2015 年夏季アンサンブル再現実験 (2016)
  • Author(s): 山田洋平，小玉知央，佐藤正樹，中野満寿男，那須野智江，杉正人
  • Organizer: 平成28年度京都大学防災研究所共同研究集会「台風研究会」
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学防災研究所（京都府宇治市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-26
• [Presentation] 2015年台風シーズンのアンサンブル再現実験 (2016)
  • Author(s): 山田洋平，小玉知央，佐藤正樹，中野満寿男，那須野智江，杉正人
  • Organizer: 2016年度日本気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学（愛知県名古屋市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-10-28
• [Presentation] The link between sensitivity dependence of TC intensification to vertical wind shear at different levels and TC size and intensity over the Western North Pacific in an AGCM (2016)
  • Author(s): Daria Schonemann, Yuqing Wang, Yunjie Rao, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh, Yohei Yamada
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 13th annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Beijing (China)
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-03
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Inter-annual variability of East Asian monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in a NICAM AMIP-type simulation (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 13th annual Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Beijing （China）
  • Year and Date: 2016-08-02
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Month-long forecasts using a global non-hydrostatic model in boreal summer season (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Masuo Nakano, Masahiro Sawada
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Annual Meeting 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-23
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Simulated Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure using high-resolution nonhydrostatic global model (2016)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Sawada, Akiyoshi Wada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Shintaro Kawahara, Masuo Nakano, Ryo Onishi, Hideaki Kawai, Eiki Shindo, Takeshi Iriguchi, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Masato Sugi, Tomoe Nasuno, Wataru Sasaki, Hiromitsu Fuchigami, Yoshiaki Takeuchi
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Annual Meeting 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-22
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Extended-Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model (2016)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh
  • Organizer: Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) Annual Meeting 2016
  • Place of Presentation: 幕張メッセ（千葉県千葉市）
  • Year and Date: 2016-05-22
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Intra-seasonal oscillation and typhoon activity during PALAU intensive observation around the tropical western Pacific (2016)
  • Author(s): Ryuichi Shirooka, Biao Geng, Junko Suzuki, Hisayuki Kubota, Masaki Katsumata, Tomoe Nasuno, Taro Shinoda, Hiroshi Uyeda
  • Organizer: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
  • Place of Presentation: Puerto Rico (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-22
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Deepening process of an incipient vortex of tropical cyclone simulated in a global nonhydrostatic model (2016)
  • Author(s): Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroyuki Yamada, Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Masahiro Sawada, Ryuji Yoshida
  • Organizer: 32nd Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology
  • Place of Presentation: Puerto Rico (USA)
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-20
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Modification of MJO, Largescale environment, and Genesis of Supercyclone Pam in March 2015 by the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (2016)
  • Author(s): Masuo Nakano, Hisayuki Kubota, Tomoki Miyakawa, Tomoe Nasuno, Masaki Satoh
  • Organizer: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
  • Place of Presentation: Puerto Rico（USA）
  • Year and Date: 2016-04-20
  • Int'l Joint Research