Statistical methods of estimating return levels from various types of ensemble members of extreme precipitations, wave heights, sea levels due to storm surge, for plans against the natural disasters

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26420494
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Nagoya Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Kitano Toshikazu 名古屋工業大学, 工学(系)研究科(研究院), 教授 (00284307)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 志村 隆彰 統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 助教 (40235677) ; 田中 茂信 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (70414985)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 再現期間 / 経験度 / 高潮・高波 / 豪雨 / ベイズ統計 / 極値分布 / ポアソン検定 / 生起率

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Extrapolation is one of the most essential functions of extreme value analysis, and therefore it requires the accuracy based on the sample size of the employing data. Now that numerous ensemble datasets output by climate model are available and the numerical calculation of hydrological processes (for precipitation) and coastal deformations (for storm surge and waves) are possible, we should consider its suitable methods based on the extreme value theories. This research have built the following new methods: two-sample problem of extremes, extended Poisson test with the degrees of experience, Bayesian approach to prediction distributions for the future maximum as well as the return levels of natural forces, integration of information by employing numerous ensemble members, spatial average of extreme precipitations by employing AMeDAS and d4PDF, and asymptotic theory of rounding the extreme values and truncating the distributions. Those examples of various methods are also demonstrated.

Free Research Field

海岸工学，水工学