Validation and improvement of a prediction model for osteoporotic fractures, FRAX, in a large-scale cohort of Japanese elderly men.

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26460788
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: Kindai University
• Principal Investigator: YURA Akiko 近畿大学, 医学部, 講師 (80142595)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: リスク評価 / 骨折 / 骨粗鬆症 / 予防医学

Outline of Final Research Achievements

To test the validity of a fracture risk prediction model, FRAX, in Japanese men, we analyzed the data from 1805 men who had been followed for 5 years. Major osteoporotic fractures (MOFx) and morphometric vertebral fractures (vFx) were identified in 22 and 41 men, respectively, during the follow-up. Area under ROC curve of FRAX at baseline for predicting the risk of MOFx was 0.668 and was improved to 0.720 by adding trabecular bone score (TBS) and serum pentosidine levels to the model. AUC of FRAX for predicting vFx was 0.682. A model incorporating BMD, age and BMI showed a significantly greater AUC, 0.783, than FRAX alone, and was recommended to use to assess vFx.

Free Research Field

医歯薬学