2018 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Development of a prediction model for the individualization of preventive health and administrative services by foresee the senior stage from the presenior stage
| Project/Area Number |
26520105
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 特設分野 |
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| Research Field |
Neo-Gerontology
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
若井 建志 名古屋大学, 医学系研究科, 教授 (50270989)
玉腰 暁子 北海道大学, 医学研究院, 教授 (90236737)
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| Research Collaborator |
Okabayashi Satoe
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-07-18 – 2019-03-31
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| Keywords | 予測モデル / 高齢者 / 死亡 / 要介護状態 / 独身状態 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In an suburban city in Japan, we had provided the integrated health checkups for the inhabitants aged 64 years, and obtained their outcomes, i.e., death and dependent status, following for 11 years. After picking up the potential predictors by simple logistic regression, we established the prediction modes selecting the predictors by multivariable logistic regression. In this analysis, we elucidated that unmarried status was a strong predictor. The discrimination performance was 0.763 for females and 0.735 for males. The internal validity tested by the bootstrap method was rather well.
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| Free Research Field |
Epidemiology
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究により、高齢期の入口に立つ個々の住民に対して医療や行政支援の必要性を見積もり、高齢者本人やその家族にとっての将来設計、また政策立案者、保健医療行政担当者、臨床医らの医療や支援の立案に役立つことが期待される。
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