2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Post evaluation of future projection
| Project/Area Number |
26550114
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Environmental policy and social systems
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| Research Institution | J. F. Oberlin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Research Collaborator |
LERNER Michael
SASAKI Daisuke
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Keywords | 将来予測 / 成長の限界 / 西暦２０００年の地球 / 中国 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This study first assesses the influence of two reports, "The Limits to Growth" and "The Global 2000 Report to the President" on environmental governance in the United States. Published in 1972 and 1980, respectively, both reports reached similar conclusions: business-as-usual economic growth was unsustainable. Relying on eight oral interviews conducted with experienced and influential persons in the US, this analysis finds Limits and Global 2000 had a limited influence on U.S. environmental governance. The reports' projections remain largely valid, but decisionmakers have long dismissed them as irrelevant. This study then accesses projections of 47 indicators of China toward 2050 conducted by 60 experts in 1997 by comparing actual data up to 2015. While GDP has positive correlations with ratio of primary industries and urbanization, negative correlations with total fertility rate, irrigated farmland, and crop yield.
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| Free Research Field |
環境工学
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