Risk quantification based on information theoretic approach for infrastructure maintenance policy

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26630237
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Civil engineering project/Traffic engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Honda Riki 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (60301248)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: インフラ維持管理 / リスク定量化 / 管理者行動 / 繰り返しリスク指標 / 情報量

Outline of Final Research Achievements

For efficient maintenance of infrastructure, it is essential to estimate risk, considering the uncertainty of stochastic property of state value of infrastructure and maintenance cost. Numerical simulation showed that due to the effect of maintenance activities, such as prioritization of repair of damage, tail part of the probability density function can gain thickness. It was found that Entropic Value at Risk, an information theoretic risk measure, can appropriately evaluate risk of such situation. When these risk measures are applied to time series events such as maintenance of infrastructure, they cause difficulty of time inconsistency and exponential increase of computational cost. Methods to manage these difficulties are also developed.

Free Research Field

社会基盤学