Development of A Prediction Model of Adaptive Evolution of Genetic Diversity under Climate Change

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26630247
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Civil and environmental engineering
• Research Institution: Ehime University
• Principal Investigator: Watanabe Kozo 愛媛大学, 理工学研究科(工学系), 教授 (80634435)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 適応進化 / 遺伝的多様性 / 河川生態系 / 選択性遺伝子座

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We projected adaptive genetic variations of four species of stream insect under climate change scenarios, using the distributed hydrothermal model and 8 global climate models. We modeled 11-31 selective AFLP loci per species, which were statistically identified to be subject to natural selection. We acquired bias-corrected air temperature and precipitation data of 3 RCP scenarios (CP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5) from the GCMs. Then, these climatic data were used to calculate annual metrics of current velocity, water depth and water temperature using the hydrothermal model. Models describing adaptive genetic variation, which is represented as linear response of allele frequency at each locus under natural selection to environmental predictors, have been constructed based on current hydrothermal variables. Using the models, we estimated future changes of the allele frequency along changing climate gradients.

Free Research Field

生態工学