Risk Analysis of High-Impact, Low-Frequency Typhoon Storm Surges in the Mekong Delta

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26702009
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Takagi Hiroshi 東京工業大学, 環境・社会理工学院, 准教授 (40619847)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 開発途上国 / 台風 / 高潮 / メコンデルタ / 洪水 / 地盤沈下 / 海面上昇 / ベトナム

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The present study developed the model that inundation levels in the Mekong Delta can be estimated by considering ocean tides, sea-level rise, storm surges, and land subsidence. Our analysis of inundation patterns projects that the duration of inundation at an important road in Can Tho will continue to rise from the current total of 72 inundated days per year to 270 days by 2030 and 365 days by 2050. People in the Mekong Delta have traditionally lived with floods, and thus there is certain resilience among residents in coping with small floods. At present, daily maximum inundation depth, which is generally shallower than 10 cm on the road, seems to be still manageable; however, our analysis indicates that this will start drastically increasing in the coming decades and reach an average depth of 70 cm by 2050. Effective and well-planned actions to mitigate the effects of future potential major typhoons are urgently required.

Free Research Field

沿岸域防災