2014 Fiscal Year Research-status Report
Population Aging, Long-term Care, and Health Insurance Market: a General Equilibrium Life-Cycle Analysis
| Project/Area Number |
26780173
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| Research Institution | National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies |
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Principal Investigator |
HSU Minchung 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (20467062)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Keywords | long-term care / saving / medicare |
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
1)We have collected household level panel data (PSID/HRS/MEPS data sets from the US) that allows us to understand the demand of long-term care and to analyze the consumption/saving/medical care behaviors in old ages.
2)We have reviewed related literature and developed a theoretical model – a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium life cycle model with heterogeneous agents (in terms of education, health, income, marital status) to analyze the behaviors of consumption, saving and responses to the long-term care shocks.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
We discuss the project regularly (usually every week), and meet several times in a year to work together intensively. We have collected household level panel data (PSID/HRS/MEPS data sets from the US) and developed a theoretical model – a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium life cycle model with heterogeneous agents, to analyze the behaviors of consumption, saving and responses to the long-term care shocks.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
1)Summarize the findings from the data analysis and calibrate or estimate the model to perform quantitative exercises. If necessary, further modify the model. The goal is to set up the model appropriately so that the model can quantitatively replicate some life cycle features (such as income, saving and long-term care expenditures) as observed in the data.
2)When the benchmark model is able to present the main life-cycle features as observed in the data qualitatively and quantitatively, we can start to discuss some policy issues. In particular, in an aging society, the benefits provided by public insurance systems may reduce over time, otherwise the tax burden for financing the public programs will be high that will hurt the economy as well as individual welfare. It is important to investigate whether a policy, which lowers down public assistance to reduce tax burden (and possibly the crowding-out effect as well) but provides some incentive (e.g. tax credit or monetary subsidy) for individuals to purchase private insurance, can improve welfare.
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| Causes of Carryover |
I plan to update the software, Matlab, to the most recent 2015 version.
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| Expenditure Plan for Carryover Budget |
Updating Matlab to the most recent 2015 version.
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