Expectation and its effect on economic activity

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26780187
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Money/ Finance
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: Kinari Yusuke 九州大学, 経済学研究院, 准教授 (10509855)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 期待形成 / 期待バイアス / 楽観的期待 / 自信過剰

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study is to make it clear how we form our expectations, how our expectations deviate from rationality (expectation biases), and how our expectations and their biases affect our economic activities. The results show that the degree of pessimism and optimism of our expectation varies considerably over time, while those of overconfidence remained stable over time. Status quo bias seems to explain the results of this study well including results of previous studies. In addition, this study finds that our expectation and biases affect our decision between piece rate reward and competitive reward. Furthermore, experiments of this study suggest that our emotion could be a source of expectation biases.

Free Research Field

行動経済学