Toward understanding decadal modulation of global warming tendency by climate prediction and data assimilation

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26800253
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
• Principal Investigator: MOCHIZUKI Takashi 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 気候変動リスク情報創生プロジェクトチーム, 主任研究員 (00450776)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 気候予測 / 気候モデリング / データ同化 / 大気海洋相互作用 / 地球温暖化 / 大洋間相互作用 / 太平洋十年規模振動 / 大西洋数十年規模振動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Subdecadal modulation of rising trend in the upper ocean heat content is observed over the tropical Pacific in 2000s, in a different manner from other decades. Dynamical ocean response to the strong subdecadal modulation in the Pacific trade wind works to keep warm and cold tendencies in the western and eastern Pacific Oceans, respectively, and consequently it can contribute to slowdown of global warming. Our decadal hindcasts with initialization insufficiently reproduce the subdecadal modulation even a few years in advance, particularly due to low skill in hindcasting the strong trade wind observed in mid-2000s. Sensitivity experiments of a coupled climate model suggest that the strong trade wind can be largely contributed by high sea surface temperature over the tropical Atlantic Ocean in relation to the positive peak of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Free Research Field

気候力学　気候予測