Classification of climate change scenarios for the qualification of uncertainty in the climate-change impact assessment for water-related issues

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26820198
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Watanabe Satoshi 東京大学, 大学院工学系研究科(工学部), 助教 (20633845)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / バイアス補正 / 不確実性解析 / 水災害

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aimed to quantified the uncertainty of climate change impact assessment in water related issues efficiently by classifying existing climate scenarios. In the first half of the research period, we focused on precipitation and classified future climate scenarios, and clarified trends among many future climate scenarios. In the latter half of the research period, the method developed was applied to large-scale ensemble data experiment results for both in the global and the Japanese region. Based on the uncertainty analysis obtained by the method, an extreme phenomenon that is important for the water related issues are evaluated with the range of future projections.

Free Research Field

水工学