On predictability of weather regimes and prediction of their forecast skills

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26887007
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: University of Tsukuba
• Principal Investigator: MATSUEDA MIO 筑波大学, 計算科学研究センター, 助教 (80738691)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-08-29 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 天候レジーム / 予測可能性 / アンサンブル予報 / 異常気象 / 数値予報

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study have assessed predictability of weather regime (persistent and/or recurring large-scale atmospheric flow pattern) on medium-range timescale and have tried to find some clues to know forecast skills of regimes in advance. My findings are that (1) predictability of regimes strongly depends on regions, (2) there are some preferred circuits of regimes in some regions, and (3) the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be a metric to know forecast skills of regimes in advance.

Free Research Field

大気科学