1987 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
A cooperative study on the definition of reliability of water resources systems and its application to the design
| Project/Area Number |
61302063
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
IKEBUCH Shuichi Professor, Kyoto University, 防災研究所, 教授 (20026181)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
ETOH Takeharu Professor, Kinki University, 理工学部, 教授 (20088412)
KOJIRI Toshiharu Asociate Professor, Gifu University, 工学部, 助教授 (00026353)
KANDA Tohru Professor, Kobe University, 工学部, 教授 (30029144)
MUSHIAKE Katsumi Professor, University of Tokyo, 生産技術研究所, 教授 (50011060)
TAKEUCH Kuniyoshi Professor, Yamanashi University, 工学部, 教授 (50016672)
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| Project Period (FY) |
1986 – 1987
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| Keywords | water resources / river discharge regulation / reliability / drought / リスク・アナリシス |
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| Research Abstract |
In the densely populated Kanto and Kinki districts in Japan, river discharge has been highly regulated to meet the ever-growing water demand. It is believed that the water supply from the rivers has almost reached the upper limit. As the result, water use systems under the limited water supply becomes much more complex. The reliability of water resources systems usually reduces as the complexity of the systems increases. For example, if frequency of water deficit is kept to be a constant level, such as once a-ten-year, regulation of river discharge to increase water supply results in severer droughts, i.e., longer and deeper water deficits, and more serious damage to the society.
Various aspects of this problem have been studied by many researchers in Japan. This research group was organized to collect, review and compile studies on the reliability of water resources systems previously done in the country, and to propose standard indices and methods to analyze the complex system. The main product of the research activity is the framework of the problem which was constructed throught the compilation. The role of each previous indivisual study in the whole system was visualized in the framework, and subjects to be immediately studied were listed up.
Ikebuchi and Okada analyzed natural and social aspects of drought as a hierarchical system, and arranged the elements as matrices. Mushiake, Takeuchi and Kanda presented techniques to classify discharge sequences during drought periods based on respective geological characteristics of basins, intensity-duration relationship, and societal response to drought. Kojiri presented a method to evaluate the reliability of water resources systems by means of matrix algebra.
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