1988 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
A Generalization of the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Estimation of Expected Inflation Rate
| Project/Area Number |
62530011
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
統計学
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
KARIYA Takeaki Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 経済研究所, 教授 (70092624)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
松江 由美子 帝京大学, 理学部, 非常勤講師
MATSUE Yumiko Department of Mathematics, Teikyo University
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| Project Period (FY) |
1987 – 1988
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| Keywords | Carlson-Parkin Mehtod / Standardized Normal CP Indicator for Business Conditions / Diffusion Index / サーベイ(定性的)データ / 基準化正規CP__ー指数 / 基準化一様CP__ー指数 / ディフュージョン・インデックス / MTVモデル / 景気変動 |
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| Research Abstract |
In this research, we generalize the carlson-parkin method for the estimation of expected inflation rates based on qualitative survey data. An importatnt generalization is that in our model, people,s resoonses to the question givencan be random, while in the carlson-parkin method, they are not random. Second, alternative determinations of a threshod value are proposed. Third, the problem is treatedwith a gamma respones function under gamma distribution, which is asymmetric.
The idea of the carlson-parkin method is applied to the indexization of such survey data as business sentiments, in particular the survey data on the business conditions carried out by the bank of japan. in such data, a variable to be indexed is not obserbable. Hence we first suppose a latent variable to be indexed and show the identifiability of the variable. Then an indicator for business conditions is proposed, which is called a standardized normal cp indicator. Also the paper gives a theoretical foundation to the diffusion index.
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